April 5, 2020
I have been struggling against using the present corona virus pandemic as an example of the first few blocks to creativity in large groups of people I have mentioned in past posts, but it displays several of the blocks we will deal with in future posts. First, our friend the short term focus. The U.S. has gone through three memorable viral disease pandemics in my (and my parent’s) memory— the one we are in, the 2005to 2012 HIV/AIDS Pandemic (death toll 36 million), the “Hong Kong Flu” pandemic (1968- death toll 1 million), the “Asian” Flu Pandemic (1956-1958 – death toll 2 million), and the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 to 1920 (20-50 million people). There have been others, but were classified as diseases (polio, measles, etc.) or took place in Africa and Asia for which we were less tuned r. I was not alive during the 1918 to 1920 pandemic, but heard so many stories about it from my parents and grand parents that I am convinced that it was an earth shaking event.
So now we are in the middle of another one, with the world death toll at approximately 70,000 and rising. Although this death toll does not compete with the ones listed above, especially the pandemic of 1918-1950, it is rising rapidly, and is getting an immense amount of attention perhaps due to modern communications and the particularly fast moving character of this pandemic. Is the U.S. responding in a creative way? Perhaps, considering this rapidly moving and wide spread nature, but perhaps not as much as might be expected. Last night my wife and I were drinking wine with a couple of senior and very smart doctors (over Zoom, or course), one who has specialized in epidemics for years and she was telling us that a major pandemic comes along about every 50 years. Fits the data. But the U.S. was clearly not prepared for this one —an example of short term thinking. We live three miles from the San Andreus fault. The last “big one” was in 1906, and caused major damage , We are aware of this, and sometimes tell jokes about it, but except for some upgrading of building codes, do not do much about preparing for it. Short term thinking again. I grew up near a large dry wash that was formed from a major flood in a channel carved over the years by snow melt. Some dams have been built, but the channel is filling with housing development. A major tragedy waiting to happen. Major fires in California and Australia, etc.
Let’s think about a couple of more “blocks” we have talked about. How about power and order. The U. S. government is happily designed to be a democracy — power to the people, order kept by the people and laws. But at the time of this writing it is pretty weak. In times of crisis a strong leader is needed. Trump is not one, if creativity is called for. He is focused on the near term and economy, and lacks the skills and focus an elected leader needs in a situation such as Covid-19, I do not want to do into the details, but he lies, does not stay focused, does not seem to leave medical strategy to medical professionals and does not understand the science involved. I also decided I would not talk about Trump in this blog, so make up your own mind—is he pulling the country together in fighting this problem or not. And how about congress and the courts?
And how about being selfish and competitive. “Pan” means international. Wouldn’t all countries, including the U.S. be better off sharing equipment and knowledge a bit better here? In my opinion, the U.S. buying medical equipment from Russia is a good move, assuming it is surplus in Russia. The many scientists and medical people working world wide in a vaccine for Covid-19 is wonderful. Any country or individual planning to solve this problem primarily to gain either a huge amount of money or power is not.
And let me finish by throwing in another conceptual block, which is the deep desire to have other people think as we do. This has been the cause of countless wars, racial and ethnic clashes, and communication inefficiencies over time, and will hopefully not have a bearing on controlling Covid-19, although there seems to be a division appearing between people who want to see “business as usual” return as possible, and people who want to risk as few lives as possible. And the U.S. government will continue to waste time with its non-cooperative political divisions.
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